Special report: AHK World Business Outlook Spring 2026: Companies continue to invest in the US – whilst simultaneously seeking alternatives worldwide
Erratic US trade policy is reshaping the strategies of German companies worldwide. Whilst many firms with production sites in the US are rebuilding their local presence following the initial shock, companies exporting to the US from abroad are predominantly responding by stepping up their search for new markets. This is shown by the US special report of the AHK World Business Outlook Spring 2026. “US tariff policy has long been acting as a global re-routing programme for investment and trade flows,” says Volker Treier, Head of Foreign Trade at the DIHK. “Companies are looking for stability and predictability. Where both are lacking, markets are reassessed, supply chains adjusted and investments relocated.”
Local German companies expect economic conditions in the US to deteriorate. The economic environment remains very tense due to the crisis in the Middle East and ongoing trade policy disruptions. In contrast, a majority (46 per cent) of local German companies are regaining confidence in their business prospects. Investment plans among German companies in the US are also picking up again: 41 per cent intend to increase their capital expenditure. Despite a marked improvement, however, both figures remain below their long-term average. Furthermore, trade barriers are now regarded as the greatest business risk for German firms in the US.
AHK member companies in the US are responding to higher import costs primarily by raising prices (68 per cent) and increasing the localisation of supply chains and production (40 per cent). Although companies already operating locally can benefit from their advantageous position in the US market, 15 per cent of them still intend to diversify their sales markets further to counteract potential revenue losses.
At the same time, the bureaucratic burden on German companies in the US is rising massively. 59 per cent report additional strain from customs procedures, proofs of origin and compliance requirements. Nine per cent have already had to hire additional staff or engage external consultants for this purpose. “The US regularly accuses Europe of over-regulation – yet its own customs policy is driving up the bureaucratic burden massively,” says Treier. “For internationally active companies, this does not make trade more predictable, but rather more complex, costly and prone to errors.”
The consequences extend far beyond the United States. Globally, more than one in two German companies with US business have already taken measures in response to American trade policy. 14 per cent are scaling back their US business, 15 per cent are turning to new markets, and a further 18 per cent are focusing more strongly on established or domestic markets. This trend is particularly evident among German companies in China, South Africa and parts of Asia. In contrast, countries with close trade agreements with the US – such as Mexico or Argentina – are in some cases benefiting from new business opportunities. “All in all, the US market has become less attractive for German companies as a result of trade policy – this applies above all to exporters,” says Treier. “But this also applies to local companies that rely on international supply chains.”
The special analysis is based on the AHK World Business Outlook Spring 2026, which includes feedback from more than 4,500 German member companies worldwide. In total, the German Chambers of Commerce Abroad have around 48,000 member companies, over 2,000 of which are in the US.
You can find the full report here: